December202 5 The changes shaping 2026 We are getting to the end of 2025, and it is time to look at the new year. But before doing that, let us look at what the expectations were for 2025 in the article published here in December 2024. At the time, several elements were listed as being known changes coming in 2025. One was that the global liner shipping companies would be restructuring their services in February as new alliances would come into effect. Another was that Donald Trump would take over the presidency in the US. And a third that 2024 had seen a 10% capacity growth due to a plethora of newbuilding deliveries, but also that this was being absorbed by the Red Sea crisis. Unforeseen developments in an unstable world This led to the following conclusion for 2025: “Hence in the absence of any unknown additional developments, and with the Red Sea crisis continuing, we could see a 2025 development where the market remains quite solid in terms of supply/demand balance although at a level not as high as seen during peak season 2024”. This indeed turned out to be the case. Based on the data available from January to October 2025, we see the global average rate index from Container Trade Statistics at an index level of 81. Thi s is, as expected, lower than 2024 which was at index 96. It is on par with the level seen in 2023 and substantially higher than the level of 67 seen in 2019 before the pandemic. Several unknown elements were also mentioned. The phase- in of the new liner networks was expected to lead to a sharp drop in spot rates after Chinese New Year as carriers would likely focus more on the new operational plans whilst not being able to blank as many sailings as they normally would. Spot rates did indeed drop sharply. As an example, the SCFI index shows Asia- N. Europe rates dropped from a plateau around 3000 USD/TEU down to a low point below 1200 USD/TEU before picking up again. The belief was that the new networks would lead to an improvement in reliability and that Gemini would achieve their target of 90%. Not only did this happen, 90% was also achieved earlier than expected. There was limited hope that the Red Sea crisis would be resolved in 2025. A few elements were clearly not expected: That the US trade war would be as volatile and erratic as it turned out to be the case. That India and Pakistan went to the brink of war, and that Thailand and Cambodia indeed had a small war on the border in bothcases causing supply chain disruptions.
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