Update and Analysis of The Global Seafreight Market This Update and Analysis of the Global Seafreight Market is exclusively for DSV Air & Sea and made by Lars Jensen CEO and partner in Vespucci Maritime. Lars Jensen has 19 years of experience in the shipping industry and has for the last 10 years worked as an independent market analyst. July 15, 2021 Weak demand developments Container Trade Statistics (CTS) has published the new demand data for the month of May 2021 and this data provides a good insight into the nature of the current problems in the industry as well as a pointer towards its resolution. To take the main conclusion from the data upfront: There is no boom in demand. The notion that the current global problems is due to an unusual amount of cargo being moved globally is factually incorrect. However, there are some important nuances underlying this statement – especially the additional fact that from a regional perspective there is indeed a demand boom in North American imports. Of course, this sounds somewhat odd given the current strength in the market and hence a deeper look at the numbers will add context. Global developments The data provided by CTS measures global demand in TEU – that is how many containers loaded with cargo has been shipped. Normally growth in demand is measured by comparing the volume with the same month a year prior as this will eliminate most seasonality effects. If this is done for May 2021 the result is a growth rate of 14%. This does indeed appear as a large growth rate, but then it should be remembered that in May 2020 we were in the midst of the first wave of the pandemic and demand had dropped sharply. We are therefore comparing to the “hole” in the demand curve and of course this would lead to a high percentage growth. But the large percentage does not indica te “growth”. Instead, it is an indicator of how deep the “hole” demand was in spring 2020.
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